It Is Political Business As Usual In China

A more liberal Chinese line-up would not only put their suspicious neighbours at ease but also ensure China’s march towards 2020 easier and congenial to fulfill its dream to acquire a number one position in today’s slippery global corridors of power. A lot will depend on how the US goes about its task of rebuilding its economy while pursuing its futuristic business and strategic goals.



It is political business as usual! China's economic outlook apart, the questions which have of late engaged the attention of most China watchers is how it would pursue its strategic policies and postures in areas of its known interest like South-east Asia, India along with its neighbours and America's global pursuits. One cannot give straight-forward answers to these complex issues. As it is, the polity of communist China is highly complex. It has an imperial expansionist path and Maoist ambitious global vision. It is a historical fact that a strong China invariably tends to be more assertive in the neighbourhood and beyond in pursuit of its economic goals and strategic targets. This basic historic fact needs to be constantly kept in mind while dealing with China and assessing its foreign policy.

I am reminded here of Mao's famous dictum which said: "Signal Left, turn Right!" My interpretation of this dictum is: Never reveal your mind to rivals. That is to say, be guarded and deceptive while putting rivals on a wrong track.

In India we very well understand these words of Mao. These are part of Chinese characteristics which, I presume, is ingrained in the nature of leadership, Mao or no Mao. Nehru's India experienced this in 1962 after signing of the historic Panchsheel agreement between Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and premier Zhou-En-lai, then Mao's right hand man. Be that as it may we have to learn to move on and deal with China in realistic terms against the backdrop of changing global equations. Today's Chinese leaders do understand that in the changing global setting, power no longer grows out of the barrel of the gun but on the strength of economic and technological capabilities.. I have already given a fairly correct picture of Beijing's economic power, and problems. It is estimated that China's share of the global economy by 2016 will be larger than America's in purchasing price-parity terms.

Looking at the economic slowdown Beijing may not achieve number one global slot by 2016. It could well be 2020. In any case, China is pursuing a well-calculated strategy to acquire a pre-eminent economic position. Will this also give it a global geo-political pre-eminence? A number of unknown factors could be at play between now and 2020. But we need not be guided by unknown factors in making an objective assessment of China's global power. We must not overlook China's ability to be flexible and pragmatic if its leaders feel such a path to be in their long-term interest. Just look at one simple fact: a country that would conveniently sideline hardcore communist ideology and befriend once-sworn enemy America and adopt its capitalist ways and concepts to modernise its economic and technological advantages with a view to carving out a top slot in the comity of nations must be a shrewd country - a very special Pragmatic Power.

Himalayan Affairs attempt ongoing analysis on indo pak friendship, indo pakistani wars and the survey indicated in Pakistan news papers. If you want to know more about Terrorism and India, visit - Himalayanaffairs.org

Talk Of Convergance, Yet Keep Up The Vigil Against China

Mention China and India to economists and their first thought will be rapid growth, and second, how differently the two economies are achieving this: China took the conventional route of manufacturing-led growth and is now recognised as a global leader in manufactured exports.India followed the unconventional route of service-led growth and has acquired a global reputation for service exports.But is this stereotype changing? Are their growth patterns converging? Is China catching up in services? Is India catching up in manufacturing? Or has hysteresis kept their growth patterns different?



History has proved that whenever two rising powers sit next to each other, chances for conflict increase greatly, as their growing spheres of influence quickly overlap.This unfortunate constellation now becomes increasingly visible in Asia, where a rising China and a resurgent India begin to claim influence over the same regions.After India and Vietnam agreed to jointly explore oil in the South China Sea, a Chinese newspaper recently accused India of "poking its nose where it does not belong." China is busy creating alliances with India's neighbors, while India has-to China's dismay-begun to strengthen ties with its competitors- Japan, Australia, and the United States.

An intensive analysis of the US-China relationship is now necessary for broadening our own perspectives. A close examination of their dynamics reveals that the ‘power’ factor stems from a variety of perspectives. Furthermore, it may not reflect the actual state of affairs, and may more accurately be described as a tension between American anxiety and Chinese aspirations. Not only is China the biggest market for the United States, American allies are trying to engage China as an economic partner. It can therefore be asked, under the circumstances, whether or not ‘lack of mutual confidence’ is a better description than ‘strategic distrust’, because it leads directly to a necessity of Confidence Building Measures.

The US meanwhile, is extending its Asian connections, not only via APEC,but also through ARF,EAS and a larger presence in the Indian Sub-Continent.The US needs an antagonist –it is the only country which has an expansionist flag.And, it is in Asia that the Westphalian state reigns supreme.Behind the ASEAN rhetoric, one needs to look also at the arms build-up by key members ,who have experienced extremely rapid economic development and have consequently put concomitant effort into modernizing their militaries. Asia is thus likely to present a highly complex scenario.Military confrontation is therefore not likely in the near future, but third party conflicts might draw in both USA & China.

How will India position itself? ‘Strategic autonomy’ makes sense for India as an ‘emerging power’ in a quasi-multipolar world, for maximizing its own options. BRICS is a possible roadmap to a transition to a new international system, not an endpoint, as other powers are also waiting in the wings.India should thus pay greater attention to these other emerging powers, since it enjoys a positional maneuverability.

Himalayan Affairs attempt ongoing analysis on india terrorism, india pakistan and the survey indicated in Pakistan news papers. If you want to know more about Terrorism and India, visit - Himalayanaffairs.org

Kayani's Kargil

Pakistan Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Kayani’s recent soul-stirring call for peace and development – and withdrawal of Indian troops from the Siachen Glacier because it was such a waste of money and human beings! – has now been shown up to be of the same kind of perfidy indulged in by his predecessor and mentor the military dictator General Pervez Musharraf designer and executor of the Kargil fiasco. Talking peace while preparing for war of the sleazy type is Pakistan’s forte and it appears its military personnel have refined it to perfection. Even as General Kayani, after visiting the site of the massive avalanche in Gyari in north Pakistan-occupied Kashmir where nearly 200 Pakistani troops of the Northern Light Infantry were buried alive, talked of peace and development his footsoldiers were busy digging a tunnel in the Akhnoor sector of the Samba bulge that gives access to India’s lines of communications to Jammu and Kashmir. The intention was to cut Kashmir at the jugular and the hope was that the valley would fall like a ripe plum into Pakistan’s lap.

Kayani’s Siachen gambit too reeked of perfidy because, after handing over the defence of the northern segment of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir to China which had already deployed up to 11,000 troops disguised as labourers, technicians and engineers, he wants only a bilateral Indo-Pak deal which would leave the whole of northern Kashmir in Chinese hands.

This division of labour in north Kashmir appears to have a pattern given that Pakistan has begun to apply the same kind of tactics that it has done through the use of cross-border terrorism combined with artillery support by the Pakistan Army along its border with Afghanistan. And, of course, there is deniability galore even when proof is proferred of blatant Pakistani involvement. President Karzai of Afghanistan has had to warn Pakistan of serious consequences for its acts of terrorism against Afghans who are preparing themselves for the transition that will need to happen when the majority of International Security Assistance Force which includes NATO and US troops is withdrawn. Pakistan sees it as a window of opportunity to reestablish its hegemony in Afghanistan and regain the strategic depth it lost when the Americans swept the Taliban out of Kabul It is with this intention that it has kept the Haqqani faction of the Taliban under cover and has occasionally used it as a hatchet-arm against the US and Indian embassies in Kabul and the ISAF in north east Afghanistan.

The discovery of the tunnel in the Akhnoor sector of the international border between Pakistan and India this week also carries with it a pattern that has become common on both sides of Pakistan’s borders. The tunneling is a replica of what was enacted by the Taliban when they dug a channel with such accuracy as to be able to reach the cell in which political prisoners – largely Taliban commanders – were held. It helped more than 500 battlehardened Islamic fundamentalist jihadis to escape from Kandahar jail. At that time an Indian analyst had predicted that similar techniques would be utilized against India in the near future. His analysis was based on the commonality of techniques and mindsets between Pakistan, North Korea and China.

Himalayan Affairs attempt ongoing analysis on pakistan news papers, assam terrorism and the survey indicated in Pakistan news papers. If you want to know more about Terrorism and India, visit - Himalayanaffairs.org

Pak Ground Realties Demand A New Indian Perspective

Whither Pakistan? It is badly caught in a trap of its own vicious policies and postures. Its extremist groups, patronized and nurtured by the ISI and sections of the military establishment, have grown so big that they are threating the very democratic existence of Pakistan. The civilian authority in Islamabad appears to be helpless as a large number of people have become victims of suicide bomb attacks and reckless firing by the extremists.

Blurb: Regrettably, what is not being realized by Islamabad’s ‘democratic rulers’ is the threat posed by Islamist militants to their very survival and existence. They could be gobbled up unless they act fast. In fact, the explosive situation in Pakistan could go out of their control if they don’t arrest the current drift. The entire setting today is certainly not in the interest of liberal forces in Pakistan in the face of possibility of military-militant coup.

Why do not the army authorities act decisively against these Taliban collaborators? Are they deliberately trying to create a civil-war type situation in Pakistan as a justification for a coup? Such a possibility cannot be ruled out as the Pakistan government is presently locked in another grim battle of survival vis-à-vis the Supreme Court on longstanding charges of corruption against President Zardari. There is apparently a method in these acts of madness. It suits the army to show the civilian rulers in bad light.

This is very unfortunate at a time when India wants Pakistan to act against the masterminds and operators of 26/11 Mumbai attacks firmly and ruthlessly. We understand Islamabad’s half-hearted response to India in such vital matters.

These are indeed bad signs for improved Indo-Pak ties. In fact, New Delhi should keep up its pressures without being unduly optimistic about a new beginning in relationship with Islamabad.

Meanwhile India’s External Affairs Minister S M Krishna was quite categorical in his assertion during his recent Tokyo meeting with his Pakistani counterpart Hina Rabbani Khar that “normalization of relations between the two countries could only be possible in an atmosphere free of terror, and hence the need for creation of the right atmosphere.”

Ms Khar is a decent person. She is both courteous and charming, but she could not have given any specific commitment on the business of terrorism on behalf of her government. She has her own limitations which we understand in Pakistan’s larger domestic realities. Still, it will be gratifying if she could make the authorities back home understand the Indian viewpoint on the basis of fresh disclosures made by 26/11 handler Zaibuddin Ansari alias Abu Jundal about the involvement of “state actors” in the 2008 Mumbai attack and its mastermind Hafiz Saeed.

Looking at the ongoing terrorism-oriented mindset, I doubt if Krishna’s words would carry any conviction with the Islamabad authorities. They continue to be in the denial mould on every terror-related evidence provided by New Delhi.

Himalayan Affairs attempt ongoing analysis on india terrorism, kashmir terrorism and the survey indicated in Pakistan news papers. If you want to know more about Terrorism and India, visit - Himalayanaffairs.org