It Is Political Business As Usual In China

A more liberal Chinese line-up would not only put their suspicious neighbours at ease but also ensure China’s march towards 2020 easier and congenial to fulfill its dream to acquire a number one position in today’s slippery global corridors of power. A lot will depend on how the US goes about its task of rebuilding its economy while pursuing its futuristic business and strategic goals.



It is political business as usual! China's economic outlook apart, the questions which have of late engaged the attention of most China watchers is how it would pursue its strategic policies and postures in areas of its known interest like South-east Asia, India along with its neighbours and America's global pursuits. One cannot give straight-forward answers to these complex issues. As it is, the polity of communist China is highly complex. It has an imperial expansionist path and Maoist ambitious global vision. It is a historical fact that a strong China invariably tends to be more assertive in the neighbourhood and beyond in pursuit of its economic goals and strategic targets. This basic historic fact needs to be constantly kept in mind while dealing with China and assessing its foreign policy.

I am reminded here of Mao's famous dictum which said: "Signal Left, turn Right!" My interpretation of this dictum is: Never reveal your mind to rivals. That is to say, be guarded and deceptive while putting rivals on a wrong track.

In India we very well understand these words of Mao. These are part of Chinese characteristics which, I presume, is ingrained in the nature of leadership, Mao or no Mao. Nehru's India experienced this in 1962 after signing of the historic Panchsheel agreement between Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and premier Zhou-En-lai, then Mao's right hand man. Be that as it may we have to learn to move on and deal with China in realistic terms against the backdrop of changing global equations. Today's Chinese leaders do understand that in the changing global setting, power no longer grows out of the barrel of the gun but on the strength of economic and technological capabilities.. I have already given a fairly correct picture of Beijing's economic power, and problems. It is estimated that China's share of the global economy by 2016 will be larger than America's in purchasing price-parity terms.

Looking at the economic slowdown Beijing may not achieve number one global slot by 2016. It could well be 2020. In any case, China is pursuing a well-calculated strategy to acquire a pre-eminent economic position. Will this also give it a global geo-political pre-eminence? A number of unknown factors could be at play between now and 2020. But we need not be guided by unknown factors in making an objective assessment of China's global power. We must not overlook China's ability to be flexible and pragmatic if its leaders feel such a path to be in their long-term interest. Just look at one simple fact: a country that would conveniently sideline hardcore communist ideology and befriend once-sworn enemy America and adopt its capitalist ways and concepts to modernise its economic and technological advantages with a view to carving out a top slot in the comity of nations must be a shrewd country - a very special Pragmatic Power.

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Talk Of Convergance, Yet Keep Up The Vigil Against China

Mention China and India to economists and their first thought will be rapid growth, and second, how differently the two economies are achieving this: China took the conventional route of manufacturing-led growth and is now recognised as a global leader in manufactured exports.India followed the unconventional route of service-led growth and has acquired a global reputation for service exports.But is this stereotype changing? Are their growth patterns converging? Is China catching up in services? Is India catching up in manufacturing? Or has hysteresis kept their growth patterns different?



History has proved that whenever two rising powers sit next to each other, chances for conflict increase greatly, as their growing spheres of influence quickly overlap.This unfortunate constellation now becomes increasingly visible in Asia, where a rising China and a resurgent India begin to claim influence over the same regions.After India and Vietnam agreed to jointly explore oil in the South China Sea, a Chinese newspaper recently accused India of "poking its nose where it does not belong." China is busy creating alliances with India's neighbors, while India has-to China's dismay-begun to strengthen ties with its competitors- Japan, Australia, and the United States.

An intensive analysis of the US-China relationship is now necessary for broadening our own perspectives. A close examination of their dynamics reveals that the ‘power’ factor stems from a variety of perspectives. Furthermore, it may not reflect the actual state of affairs, and may more accurately be described as a tension between American anxiety and Chinese aspirations. Not only is China the biggest market for the United States, American allies are trying to engage China as an economic partner. It can therefore be asked, under the circumstances, whether or not ‘lack of mutual confidence’ is a better description than ‘strategic distrust’, because it leads directly to a necessity of Confidence Building Measures.

The US meanwhile, is extending its Asian connections, not only via APEC,but also through ARF,EAS and a larger presence in the Indian Sub-Continent.The US needs an antagonist –it is the only country which has an expansionist flag.And, it is in Asia that the Westphalian state reigns supreme.Behind the ASEAN rhetoric, one needs to look also at the arms build-up by key members ,who have experienced extremely rapid economic development and have consequently put concomitant effort into modernizing their militaries. Asia is thus likely to present a highly complex scenario.Military confrontation is therefore not likely in the near future, but third party conflicts might draw in both USA & China.

How will India position itself? ‘Strategic autonomy’ makes sense for India as an ‘emerging power’ in a quasi-multipolar world, for maximizing its own options. BRICS is a possible roadmap to a transition to a new international system, not an endpoint, as other powers are also waiting in the wings.India should thus pay greater attention to these other emerging powers, since it enjoys a positional maneuverability.

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